Revival Duration and Determinants of ASEAN Machinery Trade During COVID-19 Pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis

This study performs survival analysis to evaluate duration of revived and new machinery import and the hazard ratios (HRs) of covariates related to the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The results indicate that large tariff margins decreased the possibility of disruption (HR: 0.8024) to Japanese import from ASEAN countries after revived during the COVID-19 pandemic and increased the possibility of disruption (HR: 1.0338) to Chinese import from ASEAN countries of new import during the GFC.

A Global Study of Screening Intensity and Economic Status on Epidemic Control Performance During Various Epidemic Periods of COVID-19 Mutant Strains (preprint)

This study analyzed global data and provides insights how economic conditions in various countries associate with epidemic control measures during different epidemic periods by mutant strains. In this study, the elasticity coefficient is estimated through a log-log model, which represents the percent change of the confirmed case number with respect to a percent change of the total number of screening tests in a country for epidemic control. The elasticity estimate was used to show the effectiveness of epidemic control by community screening. The 7-day rolling data of screening tests and confirmed cases from the Our World in Data (OWID) database for the pandemic periods of Alpha strain in 2020, Delta strain in 2021, and Omicron strain in 2022, suggests that the magnitude of the elasticity was associated with the economic condition of a country. Compared with the result s during either Alpha - or Delta- pandemic period, the Omicron pandemic has a much higher estimated elasticity coefficient of 1.317 (Alpha: 0.827 and Delta: 0.885). Further comparison of economic conditions that were classified by quartile ranges, the result reveals the elasticity in countries with GDP per capita between $11,354 and $26,651 or GDP per capita above $26,651 is statistically significantly lower than that in countries having GDP per capita below $3,335. The findings of this study imply that the performance of epidemic control in a country is not only dependent on epidemiological measures applied, but is also influenced by the economic condition of a country.

Valuation of Trust in Government: The Wellbeing Valuation Approach

Subjective wellbeing maximization is a possible goal of government or public policies, and it is often considered the goal of individual life. This paper proposes an estimation using the Wellbeing Valuation Approach (WVA) to estimate the monetized effect of trust in government. Using a cross-country panel data set for 97 countries in the period from 2011 to 2019, we arrive at three main findings. First, there is a positive relationship between trust in national government and average life satisfaction. Second, trust in the national government has a global median value of Intl$ 5649 per person a year in foregone income. Third, trust affects life satisfaction directly as well as indirectly through per capita GDP. This indirect effect is considered relatively small compared to the direct effect, being approximately six times smaller. This study contributes to the policy evaluation literature by providing an evaluation of trust in government to be used as a proxy to plan future investment or policy assessment.

A Charter for Sustainable Tourism after COVID-19

The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease is highly infectious and contagious. The long-term consequences for individuals are as yet unknown, while the long-term effects on the international community will be dramatic. COVID-19 has changed the world forever in every imaginable respect and has impacted heavily on the international travel, tourism demand, and hospitality industry, which is one of the world’s largest employers and is highly sensitive to significant shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. It is essential to investigate how the industry will recover after COVID-19 and how the industry can be made sustainable in a dramatically changed world. This paper presents a charter for tourism, travel, and hospitality after COVID-19 as a contribution to the industry.